NEW YORK — Global CEOs are still wary of a recession this year, and they’re also keeping an eye on trade wars and securing supply chains, according to a new survey from The Conference Board.
Nearly 46% of the 508 CEO participants in The Conference Board’s C-Suite Outlook 2025 cited a downturn or recession as the economic factor that would have the greatest impact on their business in 2025. The percentage was slightly lower among U.S. CEOs (about 40%) while highest among Asian country respondents because of China’s slowing economy.
Other economic issues weighing on the minds of CEOs included higher labor costs, inflation and labor shortages, which were cited by about 25%, respectively, of those surveyed.
Along with economic conditions, geopolitical events and issues are on every CEO’s radar, with ongoing U.S.-China-European Union tensions topping the list. Nearly 41% of all respondents were concerned about this, although nearly as many (39%) also felt global political instability would have an impact on business.
Looking at geopolitical risk, intensified global trade wars were ranked either first or second in as the greatest concern in every global region surveyed, according to the survey, with 44.5% of the 504 CEO respondents citing it. Other global disruptions mentioned were foreign cyber attacks (31%) and conflict in Asia-Pacific and expansion of the war in the Middle East (21% each).
At 51%, the size of the U.S. national debt was the chief economy-related geopolitical risk for U.S. CEOs. Globally, higher energy prices (about 35%) and decoupling or derisking from China (29%) were of more concern than the U.S. debt situation.
Political uncertainty and trade wars had more than 78% of global CEOs saying they planned to alter their supply chains in the next three to five years. This stance was strongest among other Asian nations (about 92%), but also a concern for CEOs from Europe (77%) and Japan (86%). More U.S. CEOs (71%) said they would be making supply chain alternations this year vs. 54% who said so in last year’s survey.
How global CEOs planned to change their supply chains was led by the use of digital technology and AI to improve performance tracking (34%), followed by vendor diversification (27%) and a focus on environmental and social responsibility (22%). Lowering risk of disruptions (49%) was the top reason given making alterations.
One area of note is that exiting China was not a key strategy for most CEOs. Just about 5% overall said they would exit China, with 8% of U.S. CEOs saying they’d take this action.
Among the external societal factors impacting business, the advancement of AI technology was noted by about 34% of respondents, putting it ahead of demographic changes (26%), shifting consumer buying behaviors (26%) and political polarization (25%). At 37%, U.S. CEOs ranked AI as the No. 1 factor.
In the realm of external environmental, social or governance issues, CEOs believed sustainability (39%) would have the greatest impact on business. Other factors included climate events (34%) and ESG regulation and disclosure (30%). Renewable energy and carbon neutrality were the highest environmental priorities cited by global CEOs.
For its survey conducted Nov. 7-29, The Conference Board polled 1,722 C-suite executive, including 508 CEOs, for the views on issues and events that would impact business in 2025.
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